I started writing/blogging on the Motley Fool in 1998.
Here was my first post on the internet.
Hello all, I have been lurking for a little while and enjoyed much of your banter. I am a Econ PHD dropout hence the name. I quit because I came to the conclusion that econ theory is arcane especially when it comes to investing. The psychology of idiots is what should be studied in today's market. My professional econ/psych opinion is everyone is nuts and my approach is squirreling away as much in natural resource stocks at depressed prices during this slow down and wait for the markets next cold spell.
I hope I can add something to the discussion.
A few days later my comment on Gore and International relations.
More truth after jumping.
Stole this from yahoofinance.
Monday November 16, 10:08 am Eastern Time
APEC-Malaysia "disgusted" by Gore speech
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Enraged Malaysian Trade Minister Rafidah Aziz said on Monday U.S. Vice President Al Gore's backing reform in Asia during an address was ``the most disgusting speech I've heard in my life.'``To me, as a government minister, we are disgusted,' she told reporters after Gore saluted Malaysia's ``brave people' backing reform and called for more democracy in Asia.``It is the most disgusting speech I've heard in my life,' Rafidah said. ``We do expect lectures ... we do that all the time. But not to run down the countries and incite things.'Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, host of an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit which brought Gore to Kuala Lumpur, declined comment on a U.S. speech which effectively backed the veteran Malaysian leader's opponents.But he was overheard telling people: ``I've never seen anybody so rude.'Rafidah said a lot of businessmen attending the dinner at which Gore spoke came to her table and said they were sorry she had to listen to Gore. She did not identify their nationalities.
Harsh words, eh? Everyone cooperates when things are perceived as going well, but when problems arise, it is every man/women/country for themselves. In the next couple of years, look for increased protectionism, dumping and competitive devaluations, and possibly, _od forbid wars. It is truely an unfortunate state of affairs. Be well, think peace, not greed.
Dropout
Let see. How many people 9 years ago would have believed the US dollar would be massively devalued and we would be in wars. For all intents and purposes no one believed this.
I am obviously not a new Nostradamus or some great oracle. I just understand the behavior of systems. They are highly predictable. We Americans are just but 300 million of over 6 billion. We are not a population force, just a military and economic force. Subsystems in the larger system work to exert their forces as they can. Individuals, even presidents are but noise in the system. Politicians merely sense the collective noise, there is bass and treble, right and left and they choose up sides representing that noise.
Bill Clinton knew this well. I commented on this in a post called Presidential Predictions.
I want to say to the Taoiseach how very grateful I am for his leadership and friendship. But I must say that I was somewhat ambivalent when we were up here giving our virtual signatures. Do you have any idea how much time I spend every day signing my name? I'm going to feel utterly useless if I can't do that anymore. (Laughter.) By the time you become the leader of a country, someone else makes all the decisions -- you just sign your name. (Laughter.) You may find you can get away with virtual presidents, virtual prime ministers, virtual everything. Just stick a little card in and get the predicable response.
President Clinton, August '98
http://www.whitehouse.gov/... (dead link)
Here is is whole speech
Bill gets that this a game. Which makes him the best politician but nothing more than that.
Fast forward to 9-12
I know this sounds sanctimonious but I have to say it. It eats away at my core and yet I have to let it feast because few people I know want to hear what I have to say. I use these boards because I can say whatever I want.
For example, I study Aikido, the way of harmony with the universal energy. This is an art that was part of the product of the atomic bombing and is one of peace. And yet, I go to class tonight and leave ill from the anger that permeated the room.
I assume when I sit this weekend at the Zendo, there will be a much higher level of fear and mourning. I will probably leave there feeling ill as well.
Neither is the way to go.
All life is impermanent. We all die. We all live the same experiences in one form or another. We all fear death and we all get angry over the deaths of others. We all feel the entire range of human emotions and suffering. We are all the same.
However, we do not need to act on these emotions in either word or deed.
The wheel is rolling and we will bomb someone or something. We will cause more death. We will increase spending on defense so that we have the technology to overcome suicidal individuals with box cutters. We, as a man I train with said, will feel better if we wipe out the group who was behind this. We will be afraid every time we go on a plane.
We get angry with those that perpetrated this event and fail to realize that anger is what makes them do what they do.
No one can change the minds of the terrorists, or my neighbors, or the President. It is hard enough to be in control of your own mind.
Please, Please take it upon yourself to turn the other cheek and find peace in yourself. The universe is way beyond your control, but you are the universe and can control yourself.
Seek joy. Break the cycle of fear and anger because until individuals do that, the greater community will continue on the same downward spiral.
Know that you are well.
What we need is a President that understands that the environment, war, economy, health, natural resources are not talking points but symptoms of the larger problem.
We don't need virtual presidents that change with the noise. Remember Bush had a 90% approval. Rudy became "America's Mayor." The 90% cycles from manic to depressed and opinions fluctuate but they still tend to all have the same systemic behavioral patterns.
We need leaders that were in that 10%. That understand the global systems and that peace and conservation are the only answers and war and consumption will kill us all.
How a man or woman of this 10% gets elected by the other 90% is something of a miracle.
I see only one person running on ending the politics of fear. If we don't end the politics of fear you can forget about green policy, health care, fair economics. All we will have is poverty, death and war.
Sadly, it will take a miracle.